Our market commentary highlights our current views and analysis of global stock, bond, and commodity markets.
Broad stock market rallies were a welcome sight at the start of the year, with the S&P 500 Index climbing 6.18% during the month of January. Bonds, in contrast to much of 2022, also gained value. Inflation slowly came down, although the Federal Reserve emphasized the continued need for higher interest rates to bring both …
The Federal Reserve is presented with a unique balancing act in 2023: taming any remaining inflationary pressures without causing a broader economic slowdown.
We expect the Federal Reserve to continue battling inflation into 2023, potentially triggering an uptick in unemployment and downtick in economic growth.
In May we indicated we were not yet seeing signs of an economic recession developing. Six weeks later, the risk of an economic contraction is increasing.
The stock market, as measured by the S&P 500, is currently down for its 8th week in a row, falling close to 20% year-to-date. The main reason for the decline is that investors are nervous about whether the economy is heading into a recession. Specifically, they are worried that the Federal Reserve, in its fight …
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