Market Commentary

Our market commentary highlights our current views and analysis of global stock, bond, and commodity markets.

Market Commentary: Stocks Chop With Trump 2.0 at the Helm

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After rallying through January and the first half of February, stocks stumbled, with the S&P 500 dropping 10% from its bull market peak, entering its first official “correction” since October 2023. The big-cap “Magnificent 7” stocks (Apple, Microsoft, NVIDIA, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, and Tesla) led markets lower with all but Meta posting double-digit losses from January […]

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Market Commentary: A Green 2024 & What’s Next in 2025

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2024 wrapped up another green year for markets, with the S&P 500 price index returning 23.3% (yCharts). Strength was broader versus 2023, with the consumer discretionary, financial, technology, communications, and utilities sectors all posting +20% returns for the year as well. Conversely, cooling pricing pressures weighed on energy and materials stocks with both sectors returning

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Q4 Market Commentary – A Strong Summer Pointing to a Strong Fall

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Stocks, bonds, and precious metals rallied during the third quarter with the S&P 500 up 5.25% and the Bloomberg US Barclay’s Aggregate Bond Index up 5.81% (YCharts). Stock market gains were broadly based across sectors and industries, in contrast to the first half of the year, when profits were narrowly concentrated among AI stocks and

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Stock Market Update: Goodbye July, Hello (Normal) Market Volatility

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Following a relatively quiet June and a big stock rally during the first half of July, the last two weeks brought with them a return of normal stock market volatility. Sparking the most recent wave of selling, the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ August payrolls report missed expectations, with the economy only adding 114,000 jobs versus

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Third Quarter Commentary:  Interest Rate Cuts on Deck and Standing on the Shoulders of Tech Giants

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Stock performance year-to-date has been a mixed bag with the vast majority of gains concentrated in mega-cap, domestic technology companies..  For example, the median year-to-date return for the largest 10 companies (using only the A-share class of Alphabet’s stock) in the S&P 500 is 30.4% as of July 1st.  The median year-to-date return of the other 490 companies in the S&P 500 Index is a just 2.9%

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