Our market commentary highlights our current views and analysis of global stock, bond, and commodity markets.
In May we indicated we were not yet seeing signs of an economic recession developing. Six weeks later, the risk of an economic contraction is increasing.
Straight Talk on Recession Risk – What We’re Seeing & Doing Read More »
The stock market, as measured by the S&P 500, is currently down for its 8th week in a row, falling close to 20% year-to-date. The main reason for the decline is that investors are nervous about whether the economy is heading into a recession. Specifically, they are worried that the Federal Reserve, in its fight
Updates on the Economy, Stocks, Inflation, and Interest Rates Read More »
Those hoping the world would return to relative normalcy following the omicron variant’s peak in January were left disappointed, as Russia invaded Ukraine in February. In addition to stirring geopolitical tensions, the invasion strained global oil supplies, which added to the existing forces causing the highest inflation in forty years. Source: St. Louis Federal Reserve
April 2022 Economic Commentary: Geopolitical Conflict & Higher Interest Rates Galore Read More »
2021 was the “COVID recovery” year for the economy, with industrial production, corporate profits, and gross domestic product all vaulting to new highs from their depressed 2020 levels. The unemployment rate, which peaked at 14.7% in April of 2020, dropped to 3.9% by the end of 2021. Trillions of dollars of government stimulus helped buffer the
First Quarter 2022 Market Commentary – The Fed Duels Inflation Read More »
The real estate market is hot! Since last summer, the S&P/Case-Shiller National Home Price Index has indicated the average home is increasing by 0.99%/month, more than three times the historical average. Anecdotally, home buyers are frustrated as bidding wars and offering above asking prices is the new norm. Meanwhile, some pundits have invoked the idea
Is the Housing Boom a Bubble? Read More »